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Occasionally, Bulls Roar

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We are in the midst of one of the strongest equity markets in history. The combination of low inflation, low interest rates and superior corporate earnings have combined to produce outstanding equity returns. For the twelve months ended June 30, 1995, conservative equities (as measured by the SP 500) have returned 26%, while the broader Russell 2000 is up 20%. Not surprisingly, and in keeping with historical counter-cyclical returns to those in the United States, international equities are up 2.0%.

We attended an investment conference on Nantucket Island recently where 94 public companies and 160 institutional investors met to discuss the investment climate. Observations from the conference are summarized below and followed by our conclusions.

OBSERVATIONS:

General Investment Outlook

Don Hayes, Chief Investment Strategist at Wheat First Butcher Singer gave a fascinating market overview. We have followed Don’s excellent track record for nearly ten years. He is convinced that inflation is dead and that interest rates will stay low. He credits low inflation to ample worldwide supply of commodities and to American companies which have downsized their cost structure and computerized their operations. In addition, he believes that the maturation of the baby boomers (he actually calculates a yuppie/nerd ratio) will result in increased national savings, thereby forcing interest rates lower. He concludes that despite recent appreciation, U.S. equities are positioned for one of the best rallies ever. As you will see at the conclusion of our newsletter, we are in partial agreement with Don’s view.

The Information Highway

It was interesting to listen to the America Online presentation which literally had investors “running to the phones” to purchase shares (at 100x earnings, we might add). America Online is a leading on-line computer service company and has added 1.5 million customers to their base of 1.9 million in the last six months alone. While not a stock for us, what interests us about this company is that it demonstrates the growing demand for computers, phone lines and information. We expect that this growing demand will enhance the value of our related core holdings in Walt Disney, Time Warner, ATT, Motorola and Hewlett Packard.

The United States Consumer

Many of the companies presenting at the conference sell their manufactured products to Walmart, K-Mart, Target, Sears, J. C. Penny, etc. These companies, who depend upon domestic consumer spending, suffered during the last six months due to higher interest rates early in the year and the resulting drop in consumer confidence. However, these companies are optimistic about the balance of 1995.

Our Conclusions

We differ with the optimism about low interest rates and therefore maintain our asset allocation of 10% cash and equivalents, 30% intermediate term fixed income and 60% equities for balanced accounts. We are bullish on equities (i.e., 60% allocation) but our skepticism about interest rates causes us to stay relatively short in fixed income investments. We believe that current returns on long term bonds simply do not justify the risk. Inflation may be dead now, but growing worldwide demand for oil, aluminum and other commodities may cause prices to rise.

Our overriding equity theme continues to be that the world is growing faster than the United States. Accordingly, core equity holdings are in large companies, most of which have strong international markets. Examples include Johnson Johnson, Boeing, Illinois Tool Works and Pall Corporation. The handful of companies which are strictly domestic in scope have competitive aspects about them which will allow them to prosper in a modestly growing United States. Examples include ADT, Circuit City, Heilig-Meyers and Wachovia Bank.

In conclusion, we believe that the economy will begin to grow again in the second half which will result in high corporate earnings and, unfortunately, an increase in interest rates. Although always susceptible to pullbacks, the overall outlook for equity investments is certainly positive.

Your comments and questions are always welcomed.

Neither Buyer, Nor Lender, But Seller Be

The most basic definition of inflation is “too many dollars chasing too few goods.” As witnessed through many cycles, inflation has a tendency to hide in—and rotate among—various sectors, whether…

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/ Fintech Forum: Loan Origination

For our latest round of the Fintech Forum, we’re combining several topics. At heart of this post is a guest blog from Gururag Kalanidhi of Habile Technologies looking at the Latest trends in Loan Origination . His post dovetails well with some of the research briefs that several of our GCI students did on digital credit.

This research and the guest blog post nicely complement a couple ongoing conversations we’re having across the community related to the product roadmap as a whole for Fineract CN and how our ecosystem is leveraging artificial intelligence, machine learning, and big data to make faster and better credit decisions while also delivering more impactful products and services.

To give your feedback on what you’d like to see in Fineract CN in general but also specifically as it relates to loan origination, please fill out this quick survey .

If you need some primers on digital credit and how it differs from traditional credit and lending procedures, these Ariat Mens Ranchero Rebound Work Boot Jag Java 11 E US Khaki 6V8OaY
and Janice Kim on digital credit do a great job of highlighting the technologies underpinning digital credit, the benefits it enables, the challenges it cause, and a sampling of digital credit providers.

In their CHFSO Womens Sexy Stiletto Pendant Pointed Toe Solid Ankle Strap Buckle High Heel Platform Pumps Black Ewm4jG1Ak
, Habile looks at how technology can transform the traditional loan origination process. Here’s just a small snippet from their post looking at the traditional process and the technologies enabling digital loan origination:

Several lenders are taking efforts to gravitate towards a paperless loan origination system as it removes the many hassles involved in handling physical paper based loan application documents. Thanks to the advent of Saas, several companies are offering Paperless Origination Systems as a service and helping banks ease the dependence on the existing model.

eKYC is an Aadhaar-based paperless process for fulfilling KYC requirements mandated by the government. Using this technology has enabled lenders to obtain the entire profile of their borrowers using the Aadhar system. Since the Aadhar is centralised, it eliminates the possibility of users providing falsified information. eKYC completely eliminates paperwork and In-Person Verification processes.

When it comes to loan origination, the management and processing of documents with efficiency is highly vital. Thanks to the advent of Cloud, several technology providers offer services where the documents submitted by borrowers can be securely processed and stored on cloud servers. This eliminates the manual sorting and maintenance of documents.

An added advantage of such a technology is that all documents that are now stored onboard servers are digitally verifiable and can also be subjected to scrutiny using machine learning and image processing. Even the authentication of such documents can now be done digitally with remote “eSigning” by customers.

Most of today’s KYC accounts are linked to the phone numbers of customers. Hence, customers receive all their financial updates, bank information, career opportunities via SMSes. Analyzing the SMS history of customers can help lenders examine the behaviour of the borrowers and analyze their credit worthiness.

Social Media Behaviour:

This is yet another area where information about borrowers can be analyzed. Thanks to the world of smartphones and the internet, a majority of the population frequents social media platforms and maintains an active presence there.

From sharing information on their new gadget purchases to checking into fancy restaurants, netizens share a wide variety of their personal details on social media. This can be used to know more about the spending patterns of customers.

Online purchase information is a bountiful resource to reveal insights into customer habit. From analyzing the shopping trends of a customer to knowing their income sources, data scraping can allow institutions to find out how prompt a borrower is while repaying their loans. Institutions like CIBIL help lenders categorize the ability of a customer to repay their loans

Psychometric tests are used to generate a socio-psychological profile of borrowers. These tests enable lenders assess the risk posed by a borrower and his intent to payback the loans. This coupled with the CIBIL score helps borrowers ensure a better loan-risk assessment and considerably reduce the credit risk borne by them.

Read the full post from Habile Technologies athttps://habiletechnologies.com/blog/loan-origination-trends/.

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